Atlanta Fed Signals Q1 GDP Contraction

FINANCE
Atlanta Fed Signals Q1 GDP Contraction

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker signals a 1.5% GDP contraction for Q1 2025, a sharp reversal from its earlier 2.3% growth estimate. While the tracker is volatile early in the quarter, it aligns with other indicators pointing to an economic slowdown. Weak consumer spending and declining exports contributed to the downgrade, with January spending falling 0.2% and inflation-adjusted spending down 0.5%.

Net exports also dragged GDP estimates lower, tumbling from -0.41 to -3.7 percentage points. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is weakening, inflation concerns persist, and initial unemployment claims have risen. The bond market is flashing recession warnings, with the 3-month Treasury yield surpassing the 10-year note, a reliable downturn signal.

Stock markets have been volatile, with the Dow up just 2% in 2025. Investors now expect multiple Fed rate cuts, with an 80% probability of a June reduction. Analysts warn that market complacency may soon be disrupted.

CRYPTO
Michael Saylor Doubles Down on Bitcoin

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of the newly renamed Strategy, urged his 4 million followers on X to “sell a kidney” rather than sell their Bitcoin, despite prices dropping 13% in the past week. Known for his extreme Bitcoin advocacy, Saylor has previously suggested mortgaging homes or businesses to buy more BTC.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has aggressively followed Saylor’s Bitcoin-first philosophy, acquiring BTC on over 50 occasions, often using leverage. As of Friday, its holdings were valued at $41.9 billion, with $20.5 billion added in Q4 alone. The company has already made six massive Bitcoin purchases this year.

Despite warnings about overvaluation and excessive risk, Saylor remains bullish. He has met with crypto-friendly politicians, including Eric Trump, and even proposed a U.S. national Bitcoin reserve. To cement its identity, Strategy rebranded with a Bitcoin symbol in its corporate logo, underscoring its unwavering commitment to the cryptocurrency.

TECH
Verizon, Starlink Battle for FAA Contract

The FAA is considering switching its $2.4 billion communications upgrade contract from Verizon to Elon Musk’s Starlink, raising both technical and conflict-of-interest concerns. While Starlink’s satellite tech could improve outdated FAA infrastructure, fiber optics, like Verizon’s system, may offer lower latency, crucial for air traffic control. The FAA is currently testing Starlink terminals in New Jersey and Alaska.

Musk has criticized the FAA’s current system, calling it on the brink of failure, though aviation experts disagree. The contract shift has also raised ethical concerns, given Musk’s ties to Trump’s administration and his 42% ownership of SpaceX. Legal experts warn that if Musk has inside government access, competitors could sue, arguing unfair advantages.

While Verizon is open to collaboration, potential lawsuits could challenge a Starlink-exclusive deal. If approved, the decision could reshape FAA infrastructure while sparking a major ethics and policy debate around Musk’s influence.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.