The Future of Tesla: A Look into FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus for Investors

In partnership with

Tesla, under Elon Musk’s audacious leadership, has consistently pushed the boundaries of what’s possible in automotive, energy, and technology. As an investor, understanding Tesla’s trajectory requires focusing on its most transformative bets: Full Self-Driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and the Optimus robot. These initiatives could redefine Tesla’s valuation and societal impact, but they come with risks that demand scrutiny. Below, I explore the possibilities, highlight key risks, provide a long-term outlook, and share my take with actionable insights for investors.

The Possibilities with Tesla’s FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus

Full Self-Driving (FSD): The Software Goldmine

Tesla’s FSD is the cornerstone of its autonomous driving ambitions. Unlike traditional automakers, Tesla treats its vehicles as software platforms, leveraging over-the-air updates to improve functionality. FSD, now in its supervised form (v13.2 as of May 2025), uses advanced neural networks trained on vast datasets from Tesla’s fleet. The company claims FSD is approaching Level 4 autonomy, where vehicles can drive without human intervention in most conditions.

The financial upside is staggering. FSD subscriptions currently cost around $99/month, but a fully autonomous system could command $500/month or more. With over 6 million Tesla vehicles on the road, even a 20% subscription rate at $500/month could generate $7.2 billion in annual recurring revenue. Beyond subscriptions, FSD’s real potential lies in licensing. Tesla could license its software to other automakers or fleet operators, creating a high-margin revenue stream akin to a tech giant like Apple or Google. Imagine FSD powering delivery vans, buses, or even competitors’ EVs—each deal could add billions to Tesla’s bottom line.

The technology also positions Tesla as a leader in AI. FSD’s neural nets, trained on Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer, process real-world driving data at an unmatched scale. This AI expertise could spill over into other industries, from logistics to smart cities, amplifying Tesla’s influence.

Robotaxi: Redefining Mobility

Tesla’s Robotaxi vision—a fleet of autonomous, owner-operated or Tesla-owned vehicles providing ride-hailing services—could disrupt transportation as we know it. Unveiled in concept as the Cybercab, Tesla aims to launch Robotaxi services in select cities by 2026, pending regulatory approval. The pitch is simple: owners can earn passive income by letting their Tesla vehicles operate as taxis when not in use, while Tesla takes a cut of the fares.

The economics are compelling. A single Robotaxi could generate $30,000-$50,000 in annual revenue, assuming 50-60 hours of weekly operation at $1-$2 per mile. With a fleet of 1 million Robotaxis (a fraction of Tesla’s production capacity), this could translate to $30-$50 billion in annual revenue, with margins potentially exceeding 70% due to low operating costs (no drivers, electric efficiency). For context, Uber’s 2024 revenue was ~$40 billion, with far lower margins.

Robotaxi also unlocks network effects. As more Tesla vehicles join the fleet, the service becomes cheaper and more accessible, potentially outcompeting traditional ride-hailing and public transit. Tesla’s vertical integration—building its own vehicles, software, and charging infrastructure—gives it a cost advantage no competitor can match. If successful, Robotaxi could transform Tesla into a mobility-as-a-service juggernaut.

Optimus: The Wild Card

Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, is the most speculative but potentially revolutionary of Tesla’s bets. Designed to perform repetitive or dangerous tasks, Optimus could serve in factories, warehouses, or even homes. Recent demos (as of May 2025) show Optimus walking, picking up objects, and performing basic tasks, though it’s far from commercial readiness.

The market for humanoid robots is nascent but massive. Goldman Sachs estimates the global robotics market could reach $38 billion by 2035, with humanoid robots comprising a significant chunk. If Optimus achieves general-purpose functionality, it could be sold or leased for $20,000-$50,000 per unit, with high margins due to Tesla’s manufacturing prowess. A single factory producing 100,000 units annually could generate $2-$5 billion in revenue, and that’s before recurring software or service fees.

Optimus also leverages Tesla’s AI and manufacturing expertise. The same neural nets powering FSD could enable Optimus to learn tasks dynamically, while Tesla’s Gigafactories could scale production at unmatched speed. Long-term, Optimus could redefine labor markets, from industrial automation to eldercare, positioning Tesla as a leader in a new technological frontier.

Risks & Red Flags

While the potential is immense, Tesla faces significant hurdles:

Regulatory Barriers: FSD and Robotaxi require approval from agencies like the NHTSA and state DMVs. Varying global regulations could delay or limit deployment, especially in Europe and China, where scrutiny is high. A single high-profile accident could set progress back years.

Technical Challenges: Achieving Level 4 or 5 autonomy is exponentially harder than Level 3. Edge cases (e.g., extreme weather, erratic human drivers) remain unsolved. Optimus, meanwhile, is years from commercial viability, with competitors like Boston Dynamics and Figure AI also in the race.

Competition: Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are ahead in autonomous ride-hailing, with Waymo operating commercial services in multiple U.S. cities. In robotics, established players and startups backed by tech giants (e.g., Amazon, Google) could outpace Tesla.

Financial Strain: Tesla’s R&D spending on FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus is massive, with $10 billion+ annually on AI and robotics. If these bets don’t pay off soon, cash flow could tighten, especially if EV demand slows or margins compress due to price cuts.

Execution Risk: Tesla’s history of overpromising (e.g., FSD timelines, Cybertruck delays) raises concerns. Musk’s divided attention across X, SpaceX, and other ventures could strain leadership focus.

Public Perception and Legal Risks: Safety concerns, union pushback (e.g., in Sweden), and potential lawsuits over autonomous accidents could damage Tesla’s brand and finances.

Long-Term Outlook

Over the next decade, Tesla has the potential to evolve from an automaker into a diversified technology titan. FSD and Robotaxi could make Tesla a dominant player in mobility, with recurring revenue streams dwarfing its current $100 billion automotive business. Optimus, while further out, could tap into a $1 trillion+ automation market by 2040, especially if Tesla achieves breakthroughs in general-purpose AI.

The bull case sees Tesla’s market cap soaring past $2 trillion by 2030, driven by high-margin software and services. Bearish scenarios, however, point to a $500-$800 billion valuation if autonomy stalls or competitors capture market share. Geopolitical risks, particularly in China (a key market), and macroeconomic factors like interest rates could also weigh on growth.

Tesla’s success hinges on execution. If Musk delivers on even half of his promises, Tesla could redefine industries. If delays or failures mount, it risks becoming a premium EV maker with unrealized dreams.

My Take: Tesla is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward investment. FSD and Robotaxi are closer to reality than skeptics believe, with Tesla’s data advantage and AI prowess giving it an edge. Optimus is a moonshot, but its potential to disrupt labor markets is underappreciated. Musk’s track record suggests he’ll eventually deliver, but timelines are anyone’s guess. Investors must stomach volatility and regulatory uncertainty to bet on Tesla’s vision.

Actionable Insight: For long-term investors, Tesla is a bet on AI and autonomy, not just EVs. Focus on milestones like Robotaxi pilot launches or Optimus production timelines to gauge progress. Diversify to mitigate risks, but allocate a portion of your portfolio to Tesla if you believe in a future where software and robotics dominate. Track regulatory developments closely, as they’ll dictate the pace of growth. Don’t expect quick wins—think in decades, not years.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.